By Antony Karabus and Farla Efros

With malls empty, stores shuttered, and consumers sequestered within the safety of their homes, we can’t help but wonder: How long will retail remain on hold to counter the spread of COVID-19 and what will the sector look like when it’s time to reopen?

The most difficult question might be: Which retailers will make a come-back and which will not survive?

Leveraging 30 years of experience advising retailers and having witnessed many ups and downs — though none as drastic as the COVID-19 situation — we offer the following predictions on the return of consumer demand and the changes we should anticipate. We suggest actions that retailers can take to mitigate the new normal in the near to mid term.

COVID-19 has Accelerated the Momentum of the Shift of Sales from Stores to Digital

While the retail sector experienced a significant sales shift from brick and mortar to digital over the past 10-plus years, that relative rate of growth (still 10+ times above the brick and mortar sales growth) had actually been decelerating over the last three years as the digital channel began to mature. In 2019, brick and mortar sales still represented between 70 and 85 percent of total retail sales, depending on the sector. That reality confirms that most people still prefer to shop in-store where they can appreciate the touch, feel, and interaction of the store experience.

We believe the pandemic will accelerate digital’s growth trajectory, returning us back to the 30% + percent growth rate when digital channels first emerged as a meaningful factor in the retail sector. We will also see an accelerated shift from traditional hybrid brick and mortar/digital retailers to online-only merchants such as Amazon, as well as increased market share by retailers selling “essential” items such as Walmart and those operating in the grocery, drug, home improvement, dollar, and certain essential service-related retail sectors. Those shifts will put added pressure on chains selling “discretionary” items. Amazon’s stock price is now well over USD 2,300, reflecting its incredible 30% plus growth in 2020 versus the 20% it achieved in 2019

While we believe consumers will eventually return to brick and mortar stores selling discretionary items, they will do so at a slower rate until they feel more secure. Additionally, each province will govern the conditions of the return, which might slow down consumers even more if for example consumers are mandated to wear masks in malls The record rise in unemployment levels today is over four times the record high seen in 1982, which, together with the resultant threat of large-scale bankruptcies, is promoting tremendous economic uncertainty among consumers. We are hopeful that the large-scale, expanded unemployment benefits and wage subsidies by government will mitigate some of these insecurities.

Where a consumer lands on the spectrum will dictate the shape of the demand curve.

While some speculated in March that retailers will experience a V-shaped consumer demand curve, bouncing back to the way it was before, we see a different outcome. Consumer demand will be somewhere between a U and an L-shaped curve, as we predict the upward slope of the demand curve will be a lot shallower on the way back up than the decline was on its way down.

For each retailer, the upward slope of that curve will be totally dependent on the nature of the products they sell - and the relative feeling of economic insecurity of the socio-economic audience it serves.

Two main issues will affect the consumer demand curve: Where consumers lie along the wealth spectrum and the essential versus discretionary nature of items being purchased. For essentials, it’s a V-demand curve. For discretionary items, we expect a slow return, with the best case being a U-shaped demand curve and a longer period before the upward curve starts rising again.

In order to forecast what their year after re-opening will look like, every retailer must determine where their customers fall along the socio-economic spectrum. In the past, wealthy consumers shopped without hesitation thanks to substantial disposable income and overall feelings of wealth, feelings largely contingent on a booming stock and real estate market and large annual bonuses in a growing economy. But, with large stock market declines and the likely vanishing of bonuses for at least a year, even the more affluent consumers will be likely be more cautious. With retailers now cancelling orders, what will even be available ie the choices or styles to tempt consumers back to spending on non discretionary items.

So how will the current situation impact this demographic? We predict that consumers with higher net worth and disposable income will continue to shop for discretionary items. Still, they will likely reduce that spending until the stock market and other asset values rebound.

Due to financial instabilities, including sharply rising unemployment, the lower- to-mid income shopper will be too concerned with how they’ll pay their rent/mortgage to spend much on discretionary items. For the next while, their purchases will be focused on the essentials, with survival and stability the primary concern.

Being Proactive Will Help Retailers Mitigate the New Landscape

The impact of the pandemic will no doubt be detrimental for numerous retailers and will accelerate the need for restructuring or even creditor protection. Keep in mind, many retailers have only five to ten months of liquidity now. If they are going to survive long-term, it’s critical that retailers adopt important steps once consumers return. Only by being proactive will they be able to effectively tackle the many challenges they will undoubtedly face. Retailers selling fashion apparel will need to fortify their balance sheets to be able to withstand the shock of the sudden sharp decline in consumer demand. Many of these apparel chains will need to withdraw from numerous weaker locations (given the anticipated acceleration of the traffic declines in the weaker locations with anticipated greater consumer unemployment and financial insecurities) and to invest heavily in their digital and omni-channel capabilities to adapt to the acceleration in the shift to digital from stores.

For example, what retailers have in stock today are spring and summer goods. By the time consumers come back, however, we’ll be heading towards back to school/college and the fall season. Retailers will need to take a hard look at their inventory and determine which items are basics that can be packed away for next year and which items will need to be liquidated or disposed of for being seasonably inappropriate. The largest and strongest retailers will continue to grow and thrive, including leaders such as Walmart, Costco, Sobeys, Loblaw, Home Depot, Lowes, Lululemon, Aritzia, Couche-Tard, and Canadian Tire all having strong, well-established brands. Retailers like Indigo should thrive as well given their focus on books, and leisure/lifestyle (including books on baking, cooking, and other related topics) all critical categories when people are at home and school comes to an end and likely this summer will be the summer of “staycations”.

Of course, retailers will need to find ways to ease the feelings of nervousness by consumers who will be wary about shopping in large crowds and will need to feel safe in stores again.

HRC Retail Advisory recommends five key steps for retailers to safeguard their businesses

Closely manage cash flow. Liquidity will be the most important determinant of a retailer’s ability to survive until this crisis is over, and to possibly even thrive long-term. Prioritize all payments carefully in relative importance to long-term sustainability. Develop robust rolling 13-week cash flow forecasts and minimize surprises for lenders, bankers and suppliers.
Maintain regular communication with staff and outside stakeholders, including employees, lenders, suppliers, and landlords. As with every crisis, this one will end too. What’s essential today is to communicate in a way that supports future viability after the crisis is over.
Carefully manage inventory risk. The closer your inventory comes to “consumer essentials” or “all-year-round basic products,” the lower your markdown and inventory risk. If much of what you sell is seasonal fashion or discretionary, there’s a greater likelihood of a significant margin risk. Develop the right disposition strategies and tactics to minimize the pain and to help generate cash flow to assist with liquidity. Determine what purchase orders to cancel from what suppliers by considering the relative importance of those suppliers to your future after the crisis
Re-prioritize capital spending into essential initiatives to “keep the lights on,” initiatives that will drive future profitability and working capital and lastly others that are entirely discretionary without clear payback. The initiatives without strategic or financial payback will likely be deferred
Strengthen e-commerce and related fulfilment capabilities. A robust e-commerce and omni-channel capability both now and after the coronavirus crisis ends, will position retailers well for the re-start of retail

The effects of COVID-19 will be long-lasting. We hope these recommendations will provide retailers with a clearer picture of what to expect and when after stores re-open. And, by taking these important steps, retailers will be able to pick up the pieces and move forward once the devastation is complete.

This article was modified from an article authored by Antony Karabus in WWD on April 10, 2020.